The CIBC World Market Metropolitan Economic Activity Index is a measure designed to rank the pace of economic momentum in Canada’s largest Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). Nine key macroeconomic variables and drivers of economic growth comprise the index, which enables us to approximate economic growth in each of these cities and provides a consistent base for comparison  with other cities and/or with the average performance of all other CMAs.

Our aggregated metropolitan city continued to fall during the first quarter of the year and it is now a full 6 points below its recent peak of mid-2006. The index is now at its lowest level since the 1991 recession. Given that the index now covers data as of the first quarter of the year, we are in a better position to measure the relative economic position of the country’s largest CMAs and assess to what extent they are able to cope during this recessionary year.

The city of Regina was able to maintain its first ranking position in terms of economic momentum. The city enjoys strong population growth (second only to Saskatoon), a rapid pace of employment growth (second only to St. John’s), and the lowest unemployment rate in the country (around 4%). As well, the consumer bankruptcy rate in the city is the second lowest in the country while non-residential building permits is by far the most robust in the nation. The residential real estate market is still relatively healthy despite impressive gains over the past year. Note that house prices in the city are still rising by close to 15% on a year-over-year basis.

Toronto is ranked second in our metropolitaNn eTcoInoAmiLc a cMtivitOy inRdeTx. GTheA coGnsiEsteSnt strong performance reflects
the growing diversity of the city. The city’s population is growing fast (ranked 4th in the nation) while the quality of
employment is relatively strong. As well, the pace of growth in consumer and business bankruptcies is well below the
national average. Note, however, that the labour market in Toronto is softening somewhat with the unemployment
rate at well over 8% and employment gains below average.

St. John’s is now ranked third in our index, the best performance on record. The city’s ranking reflects a nationleading
jobs market, as well as the lowest business bankruptcy rate in the country. Average house prices in the city
are now rising by 19.5% (year-over-year), the fastest pace in the country while housing resale activity is well above
average. Non-residential real estate activity is not as strong as the residential market—a factor that works to limit the
upward potential in our ranking.

Saskatoon has lost its spot in the top three in our ranking, but at the fourth spot it is still demonstrating a relatively
strong economic momentum. This reflects a nation-leading population growth, a low unemployment rate as well as
the lowest consumer bankruptcy rate in the country. Despite the fact that house prices in the city are still rising, the
real estate market is starting to lose some momentum.
The loss of economic momentum in western Canada is reflected in the ranking of Edmonton, Calgary and

Vancouver (ranked 9th, 12th and 13th respectively). A notable softening in labour market activity, population growth
and housing market activity clearly played a significant role in the worsening position of these cities. However, it is
important to note that while western Canada’s largest cities are losing economic momentum, the absolute levels of
activity in those cities are still well above average.

Montreal has lost considerable momentum over the past year largely due to a softening labour market, rising
bankruptcies and a notable softening in housing market activity.
Reflecting the difficulties in the manufacturing sector, cities such as Windsor, London and Saguenay still face
major challenges. The weakening US economy is clearly adding another layer of difficulties facing those cities.

Ben Tal